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5/9/2005 Doyle’s Left Flank Unhappy By Joe Murray Governor Jim Doyle has a political problem. Not from Republicans who control the legislature and battle with him on a host of social and tax issues. That’s to be expected. Doyle’s problem seems to be with the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Many environmentalists, state employees and liberal party activists are seething. For a variety of policy reasons, the governor seems to have alienated this important segment of his political base, and that could give him problems in his 2006 bid for re-election. Third Party Threat A real threat to Doyle’s re-election in 2006 could come in the form of a credible third-party candidate from the left. If someone with reasonable name identification and solid progressive credentials were to emerge, Doyle’s election year math could be scrambled. Why? At the top of the ticket, Wisconsin is a very competitive state, evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans with a large number of independent voters. In recent statewide races with a strong Democrat running against a strong Republican, the end result is a close election: Gore vs. Bush in 2000; Doyle vs. McCallum in 2002; Kerry vs. Bush in 2004. But Wisconsin voters also illustrate their independent streak by voting in large numbers for credible third-party candidates when they are unhappy with either of the two majority party candidates: Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996; Ralph Nader in 2000; Ed Thompson in 2002. The Third Party Influence The following shows results from past races where third-party candidates have received a significant number of Wisconsin votes: 1992 Presidential Vote Clinton (D) 1,041,066 (41%) Bush (R) 930,855 (37%) Perot (I) 544,479 (22%) 1996 Presidential Vote Clinton (D) 1,071,970 (49%) Dole (R) 845,028 (38%) Perot (I) 227,310 (10%) 2000 Presidential Vote Gore (D) 1,242,987 (48%) Bush (R) 1,237,279 (48%) Nader (Green) 94,070 (4%) 2002 Gubernatorial Vote James Doyle (D) 800,515 (45%) Scott McCallum (R) 734,779 (42%) Ed Thompson (Libertarian) 185,455 (11%) 2004 Presidential Vote Kerry (D) 1,488,935 (50%) Bush (R) 1,477,122 (49%) Nader (I) 16,324 (1%) Problem With Progressives Just how unhappy are progressives with Democrat Jim Doyle? Some are plenty mad. On several issues, Jim Doyle has angered the political left of his party in ways normally reserved for Republicans. When Doyle signed the “Job Creation Act” in early 2004, legislation designed to speedup and streamline the permitting process in Wisconsin, environmental activists, along with fellow Democratic Attorney General Peg Lautenschlager, lambasted the governor not only on policy grounds but also for negotiating the details of the bill behind close doors. Rebecca Katers, executive director of the Clean Water Action Council, had this to say: “In Governor Doyle’s first year, he has made several environmental decisions that are as bad as, or worse than, those of his Republican predecessors. Indeed, many believe Doyle has seriously weakened Wisconsin’s environmental protections in several ways that Republicans might have dreamed of, but never dared.” Doyle’s support for another version of the Job Creation Act this session will only exacerbate his problem with some environmentalists. Doyle’s pledge to eliminate 10,000 state employee positions over eight years has profoundly demoralized veterans of state civil service. “That makes us pretty angry. Clearly it’s my people – it’s the bulk of my people,” said Marty Beil, executive director of Council 4 of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSME). The governor’s recent conversion from an opponent of the Republican property tax freeze to a supporter of his own freeze drew this response from progressive activist and former Democratic candidate for governor, Ed Garvey: “Instead of addressing regressive taxes, Doyle’s brain trust copied the Republicans with a property tax freeze that saves homeowners a dollar more. Then he suggested a bold initiative to add taxes on (and I am not making this up) diapers, tea, chocolate chips and packaged ice!” Some progressives have frowned on Doyle’s promise to avoid raising general fund taxes as well. “You spend 16 years in the cave waiting for a Democrat to emerge with a flashlight, and it’s been business as usual,” said Garvey. The criticism however, has had no impact on Doyle, who is determined to keep his “no new taxes” pledge. To further complicate Doyle’s electoral math, his favorability ratings dipped from 60.2 percent in February down to 54.6 percent in March, according to a Wood Communications Group poll. Doyle’s campaign team will surely watch these numbers as the state budget debate heats up over the property tax freeze this summer. If Doyle is challenged in a Democratic primary he will win easily. It’s the possibility of a strong third-party challenge from the left in the general election that could cause problems for his chances of re-election in 2006. The governor’s potential problem is best illustrated by a quote from a disgruntled and anonymous state employee. “I’d vote for Thompson if he returns in 2006. If Gard runs against Doyle, I still wouldn’t vote for Doyle. I’d vote Green (party).” Too many such voices from his base could spell trouble for the governor. -- Murray is political affairs director for the Wisconsin Realtors Association. |
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